A matter of trust

Minnesota election laws need you!

Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon has a problem. Too many Minnesotans don’t trust the election system he manages. According to the latest Thinking Minnesota Poll, nearly one in four Minnesotans (23 percent) are not confident in the integrity of elections in our state. That number jumps to one in three when asked about the integrity of national elections. Republicans are driving the lack of confidence in elections: 45 percent lack confidence in the integrity of state elections; 56 percent lack confidence in national elections. In a state that historically has taken pride in high voter participation, shouldn’t we always strive to raise the bar — especially if shoring up voter confidence is the foundation for it?  

By contrast, 95.5 percent of Democrats in our poll trust the integrity of Minnesota elections. You read that right. Only one self-described Democrat out of the 215 surveyed dared to question Minnesota’s election integrity. (We are keeping their identity secret to protect the innocent.)  

The poll was conducted by Meeting Street Insights, a nationally recognized polling operation based in Charleston, S.C. Using a mix of cellphone, text-to-web, and landline phones, 500 registered voters across Minnesota were interviewed from Aug. 13-15, 2024. The margin of error is +-4.38 percent.  

Election cheerleaders like Simon could argue that 23 percent represents a small minority. But shouldn’t the number of Minnesotans lacking trust in our elections be close to zero? And before he dismisses it as a Republican issue driven by the “Big Lie,” Simon should understand that in his business, perception is reality. As the top election official in the state, his job is to build and maintain confidence in the electoral process. No matter their party affiliation, every voter should believe their vote will count and the system is fair.  

The lack of confidence in elections is even more pronounced when we asked Minnesotans about voter fraud. Forty-six percent are concerned about voter fraud in Minnesota elections — a startling number. It’s much worse for national elections, with 56 percent of Minnesotans concerned about voter fraud at the national level. In this case, Independents joined Republicans to drive these results. Only Democrats (nine percent) and voters in the core cities around Minneapolis and St. Paul (29 percent) believe state elections will be fraud-free. In fact, 41 percent of Independents are concerned about fraud in local elections, with 62 percent concerned about national election fraud.  

Digging deeper, we found Minnesotans have much more institutional confidence when voting takes place in person at polling places than in early voting through the mail. Seventy-nine percent of poll respondents are confident that votes cast at polling places will be counted as voters intended. That number drops 15 points to 64 percent when asked about votes cast through the mail. Mistrust of mail-in voting is a hangover from the 2020 COVID-era election when Simon recruited friendly plaintiffs to sue the state so he could use the courts to expand mail-in voting. Mail-in voting ballooned that year, with 1.9 million voting by mail in 2020 compared to 340,000 in 2018.  

Building trust with Minnesota voters suffered another blow last year when the legislature granted driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants, a move that remains very unpopular in our poll, with 58 percent disapproval. A new plan to automatically register all drivers to vote, coupled with the unpopular policy granting illegal immigrants driver’s licenses, has left Minnesotans skeptical that the system will properly prevent non-citizens from voting. Sixty-six percent of poll respondents said they are concerned that non-citizens will be registered to vote because of these law changes — supported by Simon, Gov. Tim Walz, and Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. That includes 76 percent of Independents and even 36 percent of Democrats.

Simon assures us that the Department of Public Safety and election officials will weed out ineligible voters using birth certificates, passports, and other documents, but as our poll reveals, most Minnesotans don’t trust this new system. 

Lastly, we asked voters a Goldilocks question regarding Minnesota election laws: Do they make it too easy to vote, too hard to vote, or are they just right? Here, 36 percent of poll respondents said Minnesota election laws make it too easy to vote, another sign of mistrust.  

Restoring trust in elections  

Minnesotans have voiced their opinion: Election integrity reforms such as photo ID and provisional balloting enjoy widespread support. Minnesotans also favor shrinking our early vote window, which is currently the longest in the nation.  

Simon and Minnesota’s lawmakers stubbornly refuse to reconsider the consequences of our open process for same-day voter registration. Minnesota was one of the first states in the nation to adopt the practice of election day registration in 1974, and support among the electorate remains strong, with 79 percent expressing support in this Thinking Minnesota Poll.  

Same-day registration is not unusual in our country — 20 states offer some form of the practice each November. What is unique to Minnesota is the absence of a provisional ballot procedure to verify that those registering on Election Day are actually eligible to vote. In nearly all states where voters can’t immediately prove they are legal voters, a provisional ballot is employed. Election officials use the days between the election and the official canvass of results to confirm the eligibility of the voters who couldn’t demonstrate their eligibility on election day. If the voter is deemed eligible, the ballot is counted and included in the totals.  

Adding a provisional ballot process to Minnesota law is supported by 59 percent of poll respondents. Provisional balloting would do more to restore integrity and trust in Minnesota elections than any other reform. It would also remove fears that non-citizens are voting in our elections because same-day registrants would be checked against the correct databases before those votes were counted. All but three states with election-day registration also have a provisional ballot process in place to prevent voter fraud.  

Another voting anomaly in Minnesota elections is the ability of a neighbor or friend to “vouch” for the residency of an unregistered voter in their precinct. An eligible voter can vouch for up to eight other residents each Election Day, simply by signing an oath “swearing to their residence” in the precinct. Respondents to the Thinking Minnesota Poll are split on vouching, with 50 percent supporting the practice and 48 percent opposing it. Again, adding provisional balloting would allay the concerns Minnesotans have with vouching. Poll respondents were also split (51 to 48 percent) on the use of drop boxes to collect absentee ballots, which is currently legal in Minnesota.  

Minnesotans are more concerned with ballot harvesting. Seventy-seven percent oppose allowing political parties to collect and submit ballots on behalf of voters. The practice of ballot harvesting is currently against the law in Minnesota. A voter can only submit three ballots at a time to election officials.  

One reform that continues to enjoy widespread support is requiring a photo ID before voting. Support for photo ID found more support in this quarter’s poll (81 percent) than it did the last time we asked the question in February 2021 (69 percent).  

The final election issue from our poll dealt with the length of Minnesota’s early voting window. Again, we are an outlier among states, with early voting beginning 46 days before the election. While respondents do support early voting (62 percent), they prefer a window no longer than three weeks, less than half the time currently in law. Only 21 percent support an early voting period longer than three weeks, let alone 46 days.  

Vote!  

So how should a conscientious voter approach the 2024 election, understanding all of the concerns raised about voter integrity? The first answer is to vote. Staying home because you don’t trust the system not only abrogates your constitutional duty, it goes against your own self-interest.  

Second, become a volunteer. There is still time to contact your local election office or political party to volunteer as a poll watcher on Election Day.  

Third, advocate for election reforms. No matter who wins in November, the Thinking Minnesota Poll shows overwhelming support for changing the way we conduct elections to restore the trust of all Minnesota voters. 

About the pollster  

Rob Autry, founder of Meeting Street Insights, is one of the nation’s leading pollsters and research strategists.