Poll: A losing game
Minnesota’s youth are pessimistic about living a nice, Minnesota life.
Summer is usually a time of celebration. Graduations, weddings, vacations — new beginnings abound, and the possibilities are endless. In Minnesota, the lakes are full of fishermen and pleasure-seekers, and young people and families are on the patios of outdoor restaurants or grilling in backyards.
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Why, then, are so many young adults in Minnesota not feeling this good energy — especially as we are told the economy is doing great and the policies put in place by our Democratic-led government have unlocked the secret to health and happiness?
Because for an increasing number of them, the dream of future summers spent vacationing on the lake, barbecuing in their own backyard, saving for their children’s education, or simply keeping up with the cost of living is out of reach, painting a grim picture of their economic situation.
For the first time in Minnesota, we exclusively surveyed young people, ages 18 to 34, and the results were shocking. Ninety percent of 18- to 34-year-olds in Minnesota said their generation is worse off economically compared to their parents! National pollster Rob Autry said getting 90 percent of poll respondents to agree on anything is unusual and called the results “stunning.”
The poll of Minnesota young people was conducted by Autry’s firm, Meeting Street Insights, a nationally recognized polling operation based in Charleston, S.C. Interviews were completed May 19-22, 2024, among 300 registered voters with a mix of cellphone and landline interviewing. The margin of error for the poll is ±5.66 percent.
Generational pessimism
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Minnesota young people are only slightly more optimistic about the next generation, with 68 percent believing their children’s generation will be worse off economically than theirs. That’s a lot of pessimism from a group that has their whole life in front of them in a state that Gov. Tim Walz brags is the best in the country. Our poll provides insight into why young people in Minnesota are so pessimistic about the future.
No white picket fence
The dream of homeownership, once a typical benchmark of adulthood, has now become a luxury item for many young adults. Consider this: A typical young couple, with the housing stock in short supply and interest rates above seven percent, would need a staggering $35,000 for a down payment on an average-priced home in a safe neighborhood. This, coupled with a monthly payment of over $2,000, is a financial burden that seems insurmountable. Even with a six-figure household income, saving that much money will take years, especially since the housing crisis in Minnesota has driven the rent on a two-bedroom apartment through the roof.
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When it comes to housing, 84 percent of poll respondents are concerned about their ability to buy a house. That’s not surprising considering Realtor.com reports the median home price in the Twin Cities is $369,000, up 8.6 percent from this time last year. Years of progressive housing policies have driven up the cost of new homes, thus limiting the supply. Most young Minnesotans remain trapped paying monthly rents that exceed their parents’ mortgage payments, failing to build equity for their future.
In addition to housing, our young poll respondents are also concerned about paying back their student loans (60 percent) and making a monthly car payment (60 percent). A majority — 52 percent — believe health care is unaffordable, unsurprising in a state with the most health insurance mandates in the country.
The next concern is whether they can afford to live in a safe neighborhood. Sixty-four percent of our poll respondents said they are concerned about public safety. Those concerns are likely influenced by personal experience, especially for recent graduates of the University of Minnesota, where violence has become a regular occurrence in the neighborhoods surrounding campus.
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It’s the economy, stupid
Turning to politics, we asked young people in Minnesota about the most important issue in deciding their vote for the 2024 elections. The top two answers were inflation at 54 percent and jobs and the economy at 22 percent. No other categories even came close, with abortion notably seventh on the list at 14 percent. According to this poll, young people in Minnesota are focused on the more traditional pocketbook issues heading into the November election.
Our young people are also pessimistic about the direction of the nation and Minnesota, with 81 percent dissatisfied with the direction of the country and 45 percent dissatisfied with the direction of the state. In a troubling sign for Pres. Joe Biden’s reelection efforts, Democrats split 25-75 on the direction of the country but 87-13 on the direction of the state, showing they have much more confidence in Gov. Walz than Pres. Biden. Republicans were much more consistent on the satisfaction question, splitting 10-90 on the nation and 12-87 on Minnesota.
Despite the pessimism of Minnesota’s youth, they are stubbornly planning to stay here, grow careers, and raise families. Even though they believe their generation will be worse off, 70 percent still plan to stay here and raise a family, and 78 percent believe Minnesota is a good place to grow their careers. It should be noted that we didn’t survey young people who already left the state because, well, they left.
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A matter of trust
Young Minnesotans also trust state government more than Washington, D.C. We asked respondents how much of the time they could trust the state and federal government to do what is right, and 89 percent replied only sometimes or never for Washington, with that number dropping to 57 percent for state government. As we have seen before in the Thinking Minnesota Poll, partisanship colors political topics, with 70 percent of Democrats trusting state government and 92 percent of Republicans lacking trust.
Our poll results dispute the notion that young people today are self-centered and not paying attention to the world around them, with large majorities following national (72 percent) and state (67 percent) government and politics. Almost all respondents told us they are going to vote in 2024, but most of that could be attributed to what pollsters call a “social desirability response,” meaning they answer questions in a way that they (consciously or subconsciously) believe makes them look better to others.
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Connecting the dots
The information in this edition of the Thinking Minnesota Poll provided the basis for American Experiment’s summer tour, “False Promises: How ‘progressive’ policies betray Minnesota’s youth.” The poll clearly shows dissatisfaction and pessimism from Minnesota’s youth about their future. The presentation connects the dots between that pessimism and decades of progressive policies emanating from the State Capitol in St. Paul. Regulations drive up the cost of housing and childcare, and the legislature makes it worse every time they choose subsidies over reform. Monthly energy bills are artificially inflated by wind and solar mandates. Health insurance is more expensive than it has to be in Minnesota with St. Paul overregulating the private market while adding more and more people to the public roles. Higher education costs are soaring as schools increase tuition to pay for DEI administrators and dead-end degree programs. Not to mention high taxes — on everything from income to gasoline, sales, businesses, cars, boats, marijuana, and home deliveries.
Former Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow calls the current situation in America an “affordability crisis” — our young poll respondents would agree. Government and political leaders would be wise to listen to them to see what could be done to give them more hope. If not, the summer sun might be the only bright thing about their future in Minnesota.
About the pollster
Rob Autry, founder of Meeting Street Insights, is one of the nation’s leading pollsters and research strategists.