Minneapolis and St. Paul to raise minimum wages even though their own research shows that this costs jobs

Back in 2021, I wrote about “a pair of studies from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis [commissioned by the cities] into the effects of the minimum wage hikes in Minneapolis and St. Paul”:

In Minneapolis, from January 2018 to March 2020, the minimum wage rose from $10 an hour to $12.25 an hour for employers with more than 100 workers, with the long-term goal of reaching $15 an hour by 2022 for large businesses and 2024 for smaller ones with less than 100 workers. Over the same period, the number of jobs at “full-service” restaurants — i.e., sit-down establishments — dropped in the city by 12 percent more than it would have if the minimum wage had not been increased. Over that same period, jobs at “limited service restaurants” — counter-order places — fell 18 percent.

St. Paul’s minimum wage hike didn’t actually kick in until 2020, but the research found “anticipation effects” in the city. The minimum wage in the city rose to $11.50 for big companies with more than 100 workers, and to $10 for small businesses with 100 employees or less with the aim of reaching a $15 minimum wage for all businesses by 2028. From 2018 to 2019, the Federal Reserve researchers found that anticipation of the minimum wage boost appears to have driven declines in jobs, hours, and overall earnings for restaurant workers.

In both cases, minimum wage hikes reduced the number of jobs.

Last week, the National Federation of Independent Business reported:

In Minneapolis, the minimum wage will rise to $15.97 per hour. St. Paul’s minimum wage remains tiered by employee count:

1-5 employees: $12.25/hour (effective 7/1/2024)

6-100 employees: $14/hour (effective 7/1/2024)

What should we expect to happen to the number of jobs as a result of these actions?