MISO warns of capacity shortfall

The Midcontinent Independent Systems Operator (MISO), of which Minnesota is a part, is warning of capacity shortfalls next summer.

MISO’s press release suggests a potential shortfall of 2.7 GW, though other scenarios could lead to a 1.1 GW surplus. The shortfall scenario assumes that buildout of new capacity continues along its current trend each year (2.3 GW per year), while the surplus scenario imagines that capacity additions will be two and a half times that (6.1 GW per year). It seems unlikely that permitting processes, supply chain issues, and labor shortages will ease up so much as to make that possible.

The planning survey describes several factors leading toward deficits, including “continuing rapid pace of resource retirements” and “EPA regulations further accelerating resource retirements.” MISO must plan as if Governor Walz’s mandate for 100% carbon-free by 2040 will come to fruition, which means premature retirements of non-wind or solar resources. It must also act on the assumption that the EPA’s new power plant rule will go into effect, which forces coal plants into a “retrofit or retire,” scenario — despite having already been paid for by ratepayers.

The planning survey also admits an important fact about wind and solar: They cannot replace a coal, natural gas, or nuclear plant on a one-to-one basis. Wind and solar cannot be called upon to produce electricity on demand because they are dependent on the wind blowing and the sun shining. MISO cannot plan as if 1 MW of wind or solar is the same as 1 MW of a dispatchable resource, like natural gas, because it could leave ratepayers in the dark if that resource can’t respond.

“MISO’s existing accreditation methods can overstate a resource’s capacity value during the highest risk periods… Increased reliance on wind, solar and storage, projected large-load additions and electrification, and frequent large-scale weather events are decoupling periods of risk from periods of high demand.”

MISO whispers what it should be shouting:

“Next summer, MISO could see resource sufficiency ranging from a 2.7 GW capacity shortfall to a 1.1 GW surplus, underscoring the need to accelerate resource additions, monitor large load additions, and delay resource retirements to reliably manage the anticipated growth in electricity demand.”

“Immediate actions are needed to expedite the addition of new capacity, coordinate resources for new load additions, and potentially moderate the pace of resource retirements.”

Translation from bureaucratese: retiring the most reliable plants in favor of intermittent wind and solar is going to be a disaster.