Solarfication transforms the landscape

Solar power in Minnesota hopes to transform the landscape, both figuratively and literally, over the next decade.

The Minnesota Star Tribune ran a piece last week touting the growth of the industry under this headline:

Here comes the sun: Giant solar projects could transform Minnesota’s energy landscape


More than a dozen colossal projects across mostly rural areas of the state could substantially boost Minnesota’s modest capacity for solar energy.

“Giant.” “Colossal.” How big? The Star Tribune explains:

For nearly eight years, the largest solar array in Minnesota has been an Xcel Energy facility in Chisago County that can power about 20,000 homes.

Soon, that lonely giant will be eclipsed.

Solar developers have proposed 16 colossal projects that would cover thousands of acres of rural Minnesota with glass and aluminum panels to capture energy from the sun.

“Thousands of acres” of what would otherwise likely be productive farmland. The Star Tribune reports that Minnesota currently has 1,692 MW of solar generating capacity. A local pro-solar nonprofit estimates that it takes 10 acres of land to host a MW of solar capacity.

So, current capacity takes up 16,920 acres of land or more than 26 square miles.

The paper reports that solar projects in the pipeline will increase capacity to 4,537 MW over the next five years. At 10 acres per MW, that works out to 45,370 acres or almost 71 square miles.

For comparison, the state’s largest city, Minneapolis has a footprint of only 54 square miles. Adding in the adjacent Minneapolis suburb of Edina (16 square miles) still does not get you to the size of solar’s projected 2028 land footprint.

And there’s more planned after that. The Star Tribune reports:

In 2023, solar made up about 3% of electricity generated in a state that’s far from the Sun Belt. That number could more than quadruple by 2035, which would make solar the third largest share of power, behind wind and nuclear, according to one projection by the Minnesota Department of Commerce.

The Department’s observation is less of a projection than a restatement of current state law. Minnesota has passed a mandate that calls for 100 percent “carbon-free electricity” by the year 2040. As a practical matter, the mandate allows for only three forms of power: nuclear, wind, and solar. (Small amounts of hydro and biomass may also qualify.)

Minnesota’s largest electric utility, Xcel Energy, reports on its current energy mix for the region:

Quadrupling solar’s current share of 4 percent gets you to 16 percent, enough (on paper) to cover the loss of the current coal component in Xcel’s energy mix.

But what about natural gas, which currently supplies nearly one-quarter of Xcel’s electricity?

Unfortunately, state law prohibits the building of any new nuclear power plants (M.S. Chapter 216B.243 subd. 3(b)). So, unless there is a near doubling of regional wind capacity (wind itself is a huge land hog) in this same time frame there does not appear to be any plan to keep the lights on.

Even if there were such a plan, you have no doubt observed times of the day and night where the sun isn’t shining, the wind isn’t blowing, yet people and businesses in the state continue to use electricity.

Take for example, this very instant. Today (Tuesday, Aug. 26) is forecast to be a particularly hot and humid late summer day. Here is the current (3:45 pm) energy mix across the larger mid-continent area (Manitoba to Louisiana).

Current market shares by fuel:

  • Natural Gas 40%
  • Coal 32%
  • Nuclear 10%
  • Solar 5%
  • Wind 3%

If today’s calendar read 2040 instead of 2024, Minnesota would be subject to rolling blackouts, with large swathes of the state going without any electricity for hours on end. That means no air conditioning, no juice to keep factories running.

At 4 pm, the current temperature in the Twin Cities is 93 degrees F. The heat index is 108. At 4 mph, the wind isn’t blowing hard enough to turn wind turbine blades.

But at least we’re saving the planet.